OCEANS, SEAS, THE OVERALL PICTURE AND TÜRKIYE AS WE ENTER 2024

As we enter 2024, we see the beginning of a multipolar order in a world of more than 8 billion people. The global hegemonic system that has been in place since 1945 is rapidly declining and collapsing. The American neocons and their collaborators, powered by the Military Industrial Complex (MIC), the Pentagon, Congress, the media, academia and think tanks, have not succeeded despite having the full support of the Anglo-Saxon states (five eyes), the EU, Japan, South Korea, NATO and Israel, especially the UK. 

THE NEOLIBERAL ORDER IS BROKEN

The neoliberal order imposed by military force first in 1991 and then after September 11, 2001 is moribund. This order has not benefited US geopolitics, except for NATO expansion and the transformation of the EU, Japan and South Korea into indifferent US satellites. However, they have brought blood, tears and destruction to the world, especially in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Palestine and Yemen. They destroyed the middle class by making the rich very rich and the poor very poor. They ruthlessly exploited the nature and natural resources of poor countries. They have turned the norms of morality and virtue upside down. They have encouraged corruption, conspiracy, fraud and irregularities wherever they have been involved, and they have put in office the shoddiest politicians with the dirtiest files and the most abundant politicians the world has ever seen. By exploiting religious and ethnic sensitivities to the fullest, they have torn countries apart and created fault lines. In short, under the name of a rule-based world, they brought the world to the medieval darkness exemplified by today’s massacres in Gaza.

RISE OF ASIA

First Russia in 2008 and China after 2012 put a stop to neocon aggression. Today, the pendulum of history is swinging in the opposite direction. As we enter 2024, our world is going through a process unlike any other in history. The rise of China, the distancing of the Global South from the US and the US Dollar through BRICS and similar initiatives, Russia’s superiority over Ukraine supported by NATO, the US and the EU, the US being pulled into a major impasse in the Mediterranean and Red Sea unprepared by Israel, North Korea continuing to resist US geopolitics in the Pacific with its military power, Iran’s rapprochement with Russia and China and its military capability-based resistance to the US; The loss of credibility due to the US’s complicity in Israel’s crimes against humanity in Gaza with its military and political support is rapidly undermining the global Anglo-Saxon hegemonic system. Today, Russia’s winning position vis-à-vis the West and NATO, despite the economic, military and political restrictions, embargoes and sanctions following the intervention in Ukraine, has seriously undermined the authority of the US, which claims to own the world.

THE WORLD IS IN A PHASE OF INSANITY

Today the world is in a state of madness because of the crises created by the United States and its vassals. The reason for this frenzy is that 250 years of Anglo-Saxon domination are coming to an end. The world is not prepared for this insanity. The Soviet collapse was bloodless; it is impossible for this collapse to be bloodless. There is no country that will be spared from this collapse and madness. How else can we explain the fact that the US has started stockpiling weapons even in remote Pacific islands? On the other hand, the UN has completely lost its function. The UN, which cannot do anything while civilians, including women and children, are being slaughtered in Gaza in a manner reminiscent of the carpet bombing of the Vietnam War, is no longer capable of preventing geopolitical rivalry.  In this context, UN-led climate change measures and de-carbonization become irrelevant, as the destruction and pollution caused by wars can destroy all gains. This insanity crescendoed in the final act with Israel’s genocidal massacres in Gaza. The Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb maritime trade route crisis initiated by the Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthis as a reaction to the Gaza massacre, the NATO membership of Finland and Sweden and the basing agreements granted to the US in these countries, the transfer of a large number of F-16s and Patriot batteries to Ukraine despite the impossibility of achieving strategic results, and the US and EU’s intention to legally seize frozen Russian assets and transfer them to Ukraine are all recent episodes of insanity.

STABILIZING IMPERIALISM

On the other hand, Russia, with the support of China, Iran, North Korea and the global south, has made gains in other geopolitical areas through its success in the war of attrition in Ukraine. These gains also served the interests of China under the pressure of Anglo-Saxon imperialism in Taiwan, the South China Sea and the East China Sea. In the Israeli-Palestinian war, the US-led West’s turning a blind eye to the massacre in Gaza eliminated the US as a credible mediator and arbitrator, while Russia and China became a credible front and gained trust in Islamic countries and the global south.

ISRAEL PUSHES THE USA INTO A CORNER

The Israeli imposition has caused the US to shift its geopolitical priority from Ukraine to the Middle East and away from Taiwan. In the last month, the US tried to open a new crisis front by provoking the Philippines against China, but China’s ganbot diplomacy failed. On the other hand, the West’s military aid to Ukraine under US pressure, which put a strain on the defense budgets of the EU and some NATO countries, caused them to move away from their own geopolitical space. In cooperation with China, they drove France, whose ammunition stocks were depleted, away from North Africa, especially Niger. Germany, which was about to run out of ammunition in all its warehouses due to its support for Ukraine, was deprived of Russian gas by the US, triggering its economic decline. In a conjuncture where BRICS expands from 5 to 11 countries, China’s economic spheres of influence in Asia, the Middle East, South/Central America and Africa will expand, the dollar-dominated world trade will change its format, and in such a situation, the US will try to create chaos at or near the important land and sea nodes through which the Belt and Road (BRI) passes and to prevent BRICS trade with an indirect strategy.

GEOPOLITICS IS THE ROOT CAUSE

Today, we live in a very different world from the great power conflict of the early 20th century. As a result of the US decline on the geopolitical and economic fronts, the disintegration of the fault lines stretching from Asia to Europe and from Africa to the Arctic Ocean is accelerating every day. In this process, the biggest threat to the US comes from China, a country of equal national power. According to US neocons, the Chinese Communist Party poses an existential threat to freedom and the American way of life. But the root cause of the current rivalry goes far beyond semantics such as lifestyle, democracy and human rights. This is because the same United States had taken Stalin’s communist Soviet Union under its wing during the Second World War. Geopolitics is the root cause. The 250-year-old struggle between the oceanic powers and the continental states seeking access to the sea continues today. Until the final showdown between the US and China and the alliance axes to be formed by both of them, the fault lines in the clash between the sea and the continent are rapidly breaking in the regions where the powers from the continent to the sea are active and at the nodes where maritime trade routes pass. Let us take a brief look at the oceans and sea areas in question.

THE BLACK SEA AND THE TURKISH STRAITS

The Ukraine-Russia war is completing its 2nd year. While Russia continues to hold Donbas and Crimea regions, if Ukraine does not take steps for an honorable peace, I think it is possible that Russia may use the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian crisis to make moves to separate Odessa region from Ukraine and thus cut Ukraine off from the sea except for the Danube. I believe that Türkiye will maintain Article 19 of the Montreux Convention, which has been in force since February 24, 2022. On the other hand, it should be expected that both NATO and the depleted UK will continue to provoke Ukraine against Russia in the Black Sea and continue tactical attacks against the Russian Black Sea fleet and the bases in Sevastopol and Feodasia with both air power, UCAVs and Unmanned Surface Vehicles without strategic consequences. Despite the closure of the grain corridor, I expect Ukraine to continue exporting through the Danube and also through the territorial waters of neighboring countries and the Bosporus Strait without going out to the open sea.

MEDITERRANEAN AND AEGEAN

After October 7, 2023, the United States increased its naval presence in the Mediterranean Sea to a level unprecedented in recent history in order to deter large-scale missile attacks on Israel from South Lebanon and Iran. One reason for this presence is to destroy missile batteries and military targets that pose a threat to Israel and American bases in Iraq and Syria, especially with Tomahawk missiles, in the event of conflict with Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah, and to evacuate American citizens, using amphibious forces in the region if necessary. Depending on the outcome of the Taiwan elections, the US will maintain its naval presence in the Mediterranean. It is obliged to do so. Because neocon Jewish pressure groups in the US are very important and influential in the upcoming presidential elections. The US will continue to support Israel in every field as it did in the 1973 Yom Kippur War. However, if tensions in the region increase after the Taiwan elections, the US may shift some of its ships, especially the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier group, and amphibious task groups to the Pacific Ocean.

THE RED SEA AND BAB EL MENDEB STRAIT

Israel’s unexpectedly imposing the US with 30 warships in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Red Sea during the period of great power rivalry has been one of the most serious crises the US navy has ever faced. Since there is no other state or alliance system to protect Israel other than the US, the US will remain in both the Eastern Mediterranean and the Red Sea until Israel’s ethnic cleansing of Gaza is over. However, at any moment, Israel could be confronted with a new Israeli imposition that could lead to an armed confrontation with Iran. The value of the United States to Israel today is the same as that of Britain, which wanted the United States to go to war alongside the United States against Germany in the First and Second World Wars. The two happiest moments of Churchill’s life were the US going to war alongside Britain in both world wars. In Yemen, the Houthis, backed by Iran, will continue to obstruct international maritime trade flows. Although the US tried to establish a naval coalition based on CTF 153 under CENTCOM against these attacks, it was not successful. If the US intervenes with weapons in this poor and weak country, attacks on American bases in Iraq and Syria can be expected from Iranian-backed organizations and even Iran. The Houthi attacks in Yemen could be seen as Israeli state terrorism versus naval terrorism against the merchant fleet. However, the world public can neither talk about a rules-based world order nor maritime securitywhile Israel and the US, which supports it, continue to massacre Gaza. The crisis originating from Yemen may accelerate the inflationary trend in the world by increasing freight costs. This could trigger pressure on the US and Israel by raising global public awareness of the human tragedy in Gaza through price increases. Although the Red Sea crisis will hurt China’s trade, it will benefit from the loss of credibility caused by the US’ failure to build an alliance on CTF 153 and the large number of warships it has sent to the region. Blocking the Red Sea routes will speed up access from China through land and rail transportation corridors. This will increase the utilization level of the Caspian trans-Caspian middle corridor used by Türkiye and Georgia.

TAIWAN, SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS

As a result of the qualitative and quantitative decline of the US Navy, the United States has lost naval control in the Western Pacific. Even with the full complement of Japanese, South Korean and Australian warships, the balance cannot be maintained. Once war breaks out, the chances of US surface ships surviving within 1,000 nautical miles of the Chinese coast are extremely slim. Even in times of tension, the US does not have enough ships to manage the crisis, provide logistical support and fortify the islands and allied island states. For example, how will Japan’s crude oil needs be met during the war? It is uncertain.

Today, the US has 290 ships. In 2053, this number is planned to be 367. American admirals and advisors are shouting that this number will not be enough and that the time for access is too late, but no one is listening. 40% of the attack submarines, the basis of American naval power, have aged, and a large number of submarines are under repair in shipyards.. In the meantime, the Chinese navy currently has more than 370 ships and submarines and in 6 years this number will be 435. Another most important development was that last week, for the first time in history, China made an Admiral the Minister of Defense.  The Admiral, who is also a submariner, has Field Command in the South and East China Seas. This appointment alone is an important milestone in the irreversibility of China’s maritime expansion. On the other hand, in the near future, the US will have to shift more ships to the Pacific region within its current force structure, and will ask Japan, South Korea and Australia to increase their defense budgets. It will use Japan as an integral part of South Korea, alongside South Korea, to counter North Korea’s armament and growing threat. On the other hand, I think that support for the United States, which is losing credibility in the Pacific region due to its support for Israel, will decrease. If the Republicans in the US Congress put pressure on Biden to pursue a more hawkish policy against China in 2024, I think that China will act in a much higher pitch than its reaction to Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who visited Taiwan for the first time in history in 2022. For example, as of the end of 2023, more than 100 Chinese fighter jets were entering the Taiwan air defense demonstration zone (ADIZ) every day. In 2024, we can expect that China will further enhance its military relations with Russia in the Pacific, aiming to develop advanced interoperability through joint naval and air patrols, naval exercises and submarine operations. In this context, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, who is a US puppet, is no longer trusted by the public. In the event of a war with China for the sake of US geopolitics, I do not think that the Japanese public will approve the shedding of Japanese blood for this cause. Despite this picture, we have seen that the Japanese Navy and Air Force were unconstitutionally equipped with offensive weapons and systems, including Tomahawk missiles, in 2023. Armament in the region will continue at record levels and at record profits for the US Military Industry.

ARCTIC OCEAN

This region is still outside the control of Anglo-Saxon naval powers. It remains one of the most serious problems of US geopolitics. It is trying to fill this gap by making Sweden and Finland, which are adjacent to the region, members of NATO. Shortly after Finland became a member of NATO, it began to allow American bases under the name of NATO bases in the Arctic Ocean. I believe that air and land elements with high firepower will be deployed in these bases, and that a very dense stockpiling of weapons and ammunition will be carried out in advance (Prepositioning). In parallel with these developments, Russia can be expected to establish new bases on the Finnish border, to deploy new bases to deploy tactical and strategic missile batteries and air defense systems, and to develop and increase the intensity of maritime traffic on the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic Ocean, especially to reach Chinese ports. In this context, Russia’s opening of the Arctic Northern Sea Route to ships other than ice class ships in recent months has been a very important development. On the other hand, with Sweden’s NATO membership, it can be expected that Sweden will both allow American basing under the NATO umbrella and significantly increase its defense budget.

INDIAN OCEAN

I believe that India will maintain its good relations with Russia within the BRICS in a policy of balance despite the Ukraine crisis; that its long-standing military technology cooperation will continue; and that its policies towards the US, UK and China will continue to follow the Turkish model of active neutrality. However, we can expect that the Houthi attack on an Indian merchant ship last week (unless this attack was a false flag plot) will have negative consequences.

2024 WILL BE A YEAR OF CHALLENGES FOR TÜRKİYE

Today, neither the government nor the opposition in our country has an anti-imperialist national attitude. We are living in days when calls for a caliphate on the streets, calls for autonomy for Kurdistan in parliament, and when Sweden’s NATO membership was approved without objection without any geopolitical interest on the days we buried 12 martyrs. Similarly, the signing of the Athens Memorandum under conditions that would open huge windows of opportunity for Greece and the SCGA, as if we had lost a war, are important retreat maneuvers for Türkiye. On the one hand, while threats are made to Israel from the highest level, on the other hand, allowing very dangerous discourses that will damage the social contract within our country and disturb the peace of our citizens; on the other hand, the state does not restrict oil shipments and trade with Israel, which is committing genocide in Gaza; the continued activities of Incirlik and Kürecik create serious imbalance, uncertainty and insecurity.  In this framework, we can expect that the US and the EU will continue their goal of bringing Türkiye to their own geopolitical lines with scenarios to be designed through Greece and the GCASC after the Athens Memorandum; and that they will increase their diplomatic, political, military and economic pressures on Türkiye in areas such as giving up the Blue Homeland, agreeing to a federal solution in the TRNC, and allowing the establishment of an independent puppet Kurdish state in the south. I expect Greece to launch new expansion projects at its bases in Suda and Alexandroupoli under the guidance of US strategists. Türkiye’s approach based on geopolitical reality in its relations with Russia, China and other BRICS countries; while emphasizing the importance of continuing to apply the Montreux Convention impartially and sensitively and equally to all parties, our cooperation with the related states in Central Asia and the Caspian basin through the Organization of Turkic States should continue to increase; I wish that the Turkic world, through Türkiye, the only state with an outlet to the sea, located almost at the center of the world, develops its presence and effectiveness in all global axes by maintaining balanced and mutually beneficial relations with the Western World and BRICS; I wish that Türkiye restricts its relations with NATO in every field, and that Türkiye, which has achieved the stage of going from the continent to the sea, defends the republic and the unchangeable articles of our constitution as one body with its government and opposition.  I would like to remind once again that the only prescription beyond 2024 for Türkiye’s long-deserved stability, confidence and prosperity is to return to Kemalist principles and become a democratic, secular, social, state of law; that in order to reach the level of the states on the upper rungs of civilization in the 21st century, we must not move away from reason, science, production, income distribution equality and justice, and I wish happiness and well-being to all our citizens who are loyal to our homeland and flag. I hope that both the government and the opposition will learn lessons from the football-related political crisis with Saudi Arabia last week. I congratulate all my readers on the New Year, thinking that in the coming period, the silent but vast majority of the society will endure all kinds of sacrifices for the survival of our homeland, the continuity and peace of our state with the love of Atatürk and the spirit of Sakarya. As 2023 draws to a close, I am reminded of Yahya Kemal’s 1918 poem written after the Armistice of Mudros.

“The dead are dead, and we suffer with those who remain.

We are now a despised community at home.

Those who died finally got rid of this mess.

And behind their eyelids is the old homeland,

It remained our land until doomsday.

Those who remain are young and old, men and women,

Devastated and living with the torment of talin,

With the agony of watching the enemy at home.

We are in a fearful dream at home, it is real.

But this cannot last long, dawn will surely break.

One day our army will erase the stain with fire and blood,

This is the Armistice, which is something for mankind.” 

YAHYA KEMAL BEYATLI